11 reasons for an Aam Aadmi Avalanche!

AAP avalanche has taken the Delhi elections! A storm which was never expected for a man opposite the PM.  It’s quite a phenomenal victory with nearly all seats with the AAP and let’s try to analyze the possible reasons for this outcome:

1.DELAY IN DELHI ELECTIONS – Delhi assembly was dissolved early in 2014 and the Lok Sabha results came in May 2014 with BJP taking the Center. Modi Government probably left it too late for the Delhi Elections to be held in Feb 2015, giving AAP ample time to strengthen its base on the grass root level and for Arvind Kejriwal to go to every nook and corner to apologize for leaving the Govt. in 49 days.

 

2.PROMISE OF HALF RATE ELECTRICITY AND FREE WATER – Populist measures do pay off and in this case also it paid huge rewards being one of the major, if not the main factor for AAP victory.  The increasing middle and low sections of the Delhi urban populations who are already very tired of the increasing electricity tariffs and non availability of clean drinking water are fed up of not getting basic needs of life and saw a glimmer of hope in AAP.

 

 

 

3.FEAR OF A HUNG ASEEMBLY - This probably is the biggest factor of all. There was a persistent fear among the Delhi voter of a re-hung assembly and again having no Government for another year. You can see in the above figures that BJP vote share has not decreased a lot, from 33.1 to 32.2 but AAP’s vote share has increased from 29.5 to 54.3 prompting a 24.8% increase from last time, majorly from Congress’s share which dropped from 24.6 to 9.7, a 15% decrease. Congress on the other hand had conceded defeat even before the campaigning started, not wasting any money and effort in wooing the voters. The Others Category also reduced drastically seeing a downfall from 12.9 to 3.8, a 9.1% decrease.

 

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4.CORRUPTION IN 49 DAYS – If you talk to traders, they will tell you that in 49 days of AAP rule there was some effect on corruption.  Not necessarily that they didn’t pay bribes but the Govt. officers were scared to take it and took it later at their home or other places. This of course give hopes to people for a better future.

 

5.IMMEDIATE ACTION EXPECTED FROM KEJRIWAL - Like last year’s 49 day stint, Kejriwal is expected to take decisions and solve the problems in a day, like giving subsidy in water and electricity draining the public exchequer. It really doesn’t matter in short run to an average Delhi voter that how is it done, and this definitely works in his favor. On the other hand, BJP is not expected to take drastic steps like these.

 

6.WALKING TO ROOTS OF THE CITY - AAP candidates were seen walking through the dense clusters of the Capital talking and interacting with the voters unlike the BJP ones who were primarily taking out rallies in cars, probably trying to replicate what Modi did in Varanasi.

 

7.MODI IS PM, WILL NOT BE THE CM – The biggest trump card of BJP is Narendra Modi and in this election, everyone knew that he is the PM and will not become the CM so why not vote for an alternative which seems and promises to be cleaner and more efficient. This luxury was not enjoyed by the people of other states like Maharashtra and Haryana who instead voted BJP into power after being absolutely stunned by the corruption and arrogance of Congress for years.

8.KIRAN BEDI AS CM - A gamble which was meant to probably kill AAP and get BJP into absolute majority did not pay off. Two reasons for this, one, Kiran Bedi not being a politician was not very diplomatic and impressive in her interactions with the media and public and comparisons with Modi would have definitely come in. Second is that there must be a widespread discontent among the foot soldiers of the party for their candidates given a nudge and an outsider given the probable plum post. The trios ofJagdish Mukhi, Harsh Vardhan and Satish Upadhyay have a lot of following in the party who probably  did not work that efficiently.

 

9.VIP CULTURE – An average Delhite, who does not even give an Ambulance its right of way, a very common, irritating and annoying sight is to find flashy cars with political party flags on them honking at their tail and trying to overtake with a sense that the city belongs to them.  This is with every party, let it be BJP, Congress or other except AAP, because of obvious reason of not being in power and projecting that they will never do it. Any one will love to get rid of these antics and may be quite a few voted for AAP because of this reason.

 

10.VOTER DEMOGRAPHIC OF DELHI – Being primarily an urban state, Delhi voter demographic is not identical to other states in which caste and religion plays an important role. This also worked in favor of AAP as BJP which can be good in this, did not have an effect in this aspect.

 

 

 

11.SOCIAL MARKETING – It has become the major medium of communication and marketing of everything, let alone politics. There was an active negative campaign regarding BJP like above comparing Arvind Kejriwal toNayak’s Anil Kapoor and Modi to Ambrish Puri and with sarcastic forwards like “ Development can come anytime, it’s been 9 months for the Modi Govt ”. Not sure though what the people expects in 9 months which hasn’t been done or is on track.

 

Expectations from AAP

The onus on AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is huge like it was and is on Narendra Modi in terms of the country. He probably will find it difficult on fulfilling the populist measures like half rate electricity if it is by giving subsidies. His immaturity did show in his last stint of 49 days by things like holding Jan Sabha’s at the secretariat without proper lines and procedure which had to then be called off.  He has to be more careful in giving irresponsible statements which he is very popular for, the latest being that “the EVM machines will be tampered to favor BJP”. It would be very interesting to hear his reply after the results though.

Long Live Democracy!